{"generated_at":"2026-08-14T19:59:22Z","window_days":30,"method":"Bias-corrected multi-model ensemble center, reconstructed from the FIRST forecast capture in the 5-14h pre-peak lead band (what a morning buyer receives). Scored against the station's observed daily max \u2014 the same source class that resolves the markets. The evaluated day is excluded from its own bias sample (no leakage). Metrics in \u00b0C for all cities.","aggregate":{"stations":40,"n_days":1219,"mae_c":0.86},"stations":{"amsterdam":{"station":"EHAM","n_days":31,"mae_c":0.69,"p_within_1c":0.84,"exact_integer_hit":0.32},"ankara":{"station":"LTAC","n_days":31,"mae_c":0.64,"p_within_1c":0.84,"exact_integer_hit":0.48},"atlanta":{"station":"KATL","n_days":30,"mae_c":1.12,"p_within_1c":0.5,"exact_integer_hit":0.2},"austin":{"station":"KAUS","n_days":30,"mae_c":0.64,"p_within_1c":0.77,"exact_integer_hit":0.53},"beijing":{"station":"ZBAA","n_days":31,"mae_c":0.91,"p_within_1c":0.65,"exact_integer_hit":0.26},"buenos-aires":{"station":"SAEZ","n_days":30,"mae_c":1.56,"p_within_1c":0.6,"exact_integer_hit":0.3},"cape-town":{"station":"FACT","n_days":31,"mae_c":1.11,"p_within_1c":0.55,"exact_integer_hit":0.29},"chicago":{"station":"KORD","n_days":30,"mae_c":1.29,"p_within_1c":0.53,"exact_integer_hit":0.33},"dallas":{"station":"KDAL","n_days":30,"mae_c":1.03,"p_within_1c":0.67,"exact_integer_hit":0.43},"denver":{"station":"KBKF","n_days":30,"mae_c":0.72,"p_within_1c":0.7,"exact_integer_hit":0.57},"guangzhou":{"station":"ZGGG","n_days":31,"mae_c":0.81,"p_within_1c":0.71,"exact_integer_hit":0.45},"helsinki":{"station":"EFHK","n_days":31,"mae_c":0.63,"p_within_1c":0.77,"exact_integer_hit":0.55},"houston":{"station":"KHOU","n_days":30,"mae_c":0.91,"p_within_1c":0.6,"exact_integer_hit":0.23},"istanbul":{"station":"LTFM","n_days":30,"mae_c":0.7,"p_within_1c":0.8,"exact_integer_hit":0.47},"jakarta":{"station":"WIII","n_days":30,"mae_c":0.61,"p_within_1c":0.8,"exact_integer_hit":0.5},"karachi":{"station":"OPKC","n_days":31,"mae_c":0.5,"p_within_1c":0.87,"exact_integer_hit":0.55},"kuala-lumpur":{"station":"WMKK","n_days":30,"mae_c":0.8,"p_within_1c":0.73,"exact_integer_hit":0.27},"london":{"station":"EGLC","n_days":30,"mae_c":0.78,"p_within_1c":0.7,"exact_integer_hit":0.5},"los-angeles":{"station":"KLAX","n_days":30,"mae_c":0.64,"p_within_1c":0.8,"exact_integer_hit":0.67},"madrid":{"station":"LEMD","n_days":31,"mae_c":0.52,"p_within_1c":0.94,"exact_integer_hit":0.58},"manila":{"station":"RPLL","n_days":30,"mae_c":0.86,"p_within_1c":0.67,"exact_integer_hit":0.4},"mexico-city":{"station":"MMMX","n_days":30,"mae_c":1.71,"p_within_1c":0.47,"exact_integer_hit":0.23},"miami":{"station":"KMIA","n_days":30,"mae_c":0.64,"p_within_1c":0.83,"exact_integer_hit":0.53},"milan":{"station":"LIMC","n_days":31,"mae_c":0.68,"p_within_1c":0.81,"exact_integer_hit":0.52},"moscow":{"station":"UUWW","n_days":31,"mae_c":0.65,"p_within_1c":0.74,"exact_integer_hit":0.52},"munich":{"station":"EDDM","n_days":31,"mae_c":0.72,"p_within_1c":0.84,"exact_integer_hit":0.45},"nyc":{"station":"KLGA","n_days":30,"mae_c":0.83,"p_within_1c":0.77,"exact_integer_hit":0.57},"paris":{"station":"LFPB","n_days":31,"mae_c":0.57,"p_within_1c":0.87,"exact_integer_hit":0.58},"san-francisco":{"station":"KSFO","n_days":30,"mae_c":1.25,"p_within_1c":0.47,"exact_integer_hit":0.27},"sao-paulo":{"station":"SBGR","n_days":30,"mae_c":2.55,"p_within_1c":0.4,"exact_integer_hit":0.27},"seattle":{"station":"KSEA","n_days":30,"mae_c":0.76,"p_within_1c":0.7,"exact_integer_hit":0.33},"seoul":{"station":"RKSI","n_days":31,"mae_c":0.79,"p_within_1c":0.68,"exact_integer_hit":0.35},"shanghai":{"station":"ZSPD","n_days":31,"mae_c":0.65,"p_within_1c":0.77,"exact_integer_hit":0.52},"singapore":{"station":"WSSS","n_days":31,"mae_c":0.5,"p_within_1c":0.94,"exact_integer_hit":0.55},"taipei":{"station":"RCSS","n_days":31,"mae_c":0.77,"p_within_1c":0.65,"exact_integer_hit":0.39},"tel-aviv":{"station":"LLBG","n_days":31,"mae_c":0.44,"p_within_1c":0.9,"exact_integer_hit":0.58},"tokyo":{"station":"RJTT","n_days":31,"mae_c":0.96,"p_within_1c":0.61,"exact_integer_hit":0.35},"toronto":{"station":"CYYZ","n_days":30,"mae_c":1.21,"p_within_1c":0.57,"exact_integer_hit":0.27},"warsaw":{"station":"EPWA","n_days":31,"mae_c":0.75,"p_within_1c":0.74,"exact_integer_hit":0.42},"wellington":{"station":"NZWN","n_days":30,"mae_c":0.52,"p_within_1c":0.83,"exact_integer_hit":0.53}}}